It is no secret that players seem to play better when they are in a
contract year. The list of players in contract years this season is
tremendous. It will be easy to track these guys, and see if the
contract year theory carries weight this time around. Of the top 100
batters according to Bloomberg Sports, here are some of the names that
jump out at me:
Prince Fielder is coming off a monster 2009 campaign that saw him belt
46 homers, drive in 141 runs, cross the plate 103 times himself, and
post an OPS of 1.014. Oh yeah, big boy also played in all 162 games and
has averaged 159 games per season over the past four years. CHONE has
him ranked as the second best offensive player on the board, so when the
guy before you takes a flier on Ryan Howard and his steadily declining
OPS, pull the trigger on Fielder if you are targeting a one bagger with
your first pick and you are drafting second or later.
Jayson Werth is also coming off of a monster year, his first season as a
full-time player. Werth had a great year both in the real world, and
the fantasy one. He almost cracked triple digits in both runs and rbis,
and put up 36 bombs and 20 stolen bases. He has already stated that he
plans on testing free agency after this season, and while Citizen's
Bank Park is not the bandbox it is perceived to be, the Phillies lineup
is every bit as good as advertised. Werth could certainly put up better
numbers this year than last, so make sure you have him highlighted on
draft day.
Carlos Pena is another great one bagger to target. He will not hit for
average as well as Fielder will, nor will he come close to the rbi total
of Fielder. Pena will break the century mark in rbis, though, and is a
40 homer threat. So while Pena is no where near as good of an option
as some of the first tier one baggers (tiers are coming, I promise), if
the contract year theory is in effect he could put up numbers similar to
Adrian Gonzalez, who also happens to be in a contract year.
Julio
Borbon is one of my favorite sleeper targets this draft. If you
want to compete in your league, you have to at least be respectable in
all categories. That includes stolen bases, and Borbon could break out
as a 50 bag threat. Keeping in mind that the contract year theory
requires us to be optimistic, Borbon will also hit close to .310 while
crossing the plate about 90 times. While his power numbers will leave a
lot to be desired, his help to your average, runs and stolen bases will
make you happy that you passed on Brad Hawpe (another contract year
guy).
Paul Konerko is another interesting first baseman on the list. Last
year dude did what he always does, matching his career .277 batting
average and hitting for an OPS of .842 (just one thousandth off of his
career .843). While his homer run totals have gone down, he still is no
slouch. Dude had 28 in 2009, and could dial in and go for 35 this
season.
These are just a few of the many contract year targets this fantasy
baseball season. While I'm not endorsing all of these players as guys
to necessarily target, they are all guys who should be on your radar and
selected if the value is there. Of course guys like Fielder will not
make it out of the first round anyway, but will you pass on Howard and
take him if given the chance?