Cole Hamels - Best of the Best?
By: mbohn

Unless you have been living in a cave, you are well aware that the
Philadelphia Phillies, upon adding Cliff Lee, have formed one of, if not
the best rotations of all time. I'm always hesitant to call anything
the best ever, and I will stick to that rule here. The question of
importance is which of their vaunted starters should you target in your
fantasy league?
Remember, this comparison is for value, and with
the assumption that you can only nab one of the four. Obviously, if the
value is there, you are going to nab as many as you can, but for the
purpose of this comparison I'm using the basis that only one will be on
your roster. So who should you reach for? Lets take a look at some
numbers.
In 2010 all four were in the top 25 in strikeouts:
Cliff Lee 22nd (185), Roy Oswalt 17th (193), Cold Hamels 10th (211), Roy
Halladay 5th (219). Now lets look at innings pitched: Hamels 28th
(208.2), Oswalt 23rd (211.2), Lee 20th (212.1), Halladay 1st (250.2).
Only Halladay and Hamels cracked the 200 mark in both Ks and innings
pitched, with Halladay going an amazing 42 more innings than Hamels, yet
only striking out eight more batters. Hamels clearly wins in the K
department, with his 9.1 K/9, with Oswalt next at 8.21. Halladay sat at
7.86 with Lee close behind at 7.84. Sure, no league should have K/9 as
a category, but if you are in a maximum innings pitched league then
this make Hamels even more valuable.
Stats that you do count are
WHIP and ERA. Hamels had the highest WHIP at 1.18, with Lee the lowest
at an even 1. Not a lot of separation from 1st to 4th there, so it
should not factor into your decision. ERA? This is where Halladay
beats everyone, with his phenomenal 2.44. Oswalt comes next with a
2.76, followed by Hamels at 3.06 and Lee's 3.18. Halladay is obviously a
beast in ERA, but would you scoff at another 3.06 from Hamels? Hardly.
Wins
is the final stat that you will most likely track, a stat that is the
biggest illusion in baseball, but since they are important in fantasy
land we must consider them. Last season Hamels started the year as the
#2 for the Phils. This year he is likely to start as the #4. So Hamels
will be matched up against the likes of Bud Norris, Kevin Correia and
such. Few rotations go deep like the Phillies, so you should expect
that Hamels' wins will increase from his 12 in 2010. For you PECOTA
fans, do not fret about the numbers that it predicts for Hamels, this is
one of the cases where I think PECOTA is dead wrong.
While it is still too early to get accurate ADP numbers, I have seen
some mocks with "experts" where Hamels goes as late as the 10th round.
Since that is obviously late, we'll call it 8th for arguments sake.
Halladay goes in the first round of every draft. Lee no later than the
2nd. Oswalt? 6th at worst. Do you really think that either Lee (whose
numbers were worse than Hamels in 2010) or Halladay is worth that much
more than Hamels? I do not, and I'll be happy to pass on both of the CY
Young winners and take Hamels "early" in the 5th if it means I can nab a
big bat early instead.