Yesterday we took a long, hard look at Chase Utley, ultimately deciding that 2011 could be a rejuvenating year for the two bagger.  We would be remiss if we did not look at his counterpart, one Ryan Howard.  It is no secret that Howard is not someone of whom we put a tremendous amount of stock, so it is time to look deeper into the numbers and see what comes out.

In the 2010 season, Howard ranked 13th of all one baggers in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).  Whether or not you choose to put a lot of stock into VORP probably depends on your level of sabermetric knowledge and appreciation.  There is nothing wrong with looking at a player based solely on the traditional statistics, but when doing so you handcuff your ability to project how a player may perform with a different roster or ballpark.  I like to use VORP to help create rankings by position, but it is not the sole statistic that I rely on.  I also look at things like the Equivalent stats, which to me are a much more reliable way to judge a player than any other set of stats.  Ok, let us get off of this tangent and back to Howard.

2010 was certainly a down year for Ryan, as he saw all of his stats take a dive compared to his 2009 season.  For the first time in four years, Howard failed to drive in more than 130 runs (108 RBIs) and also failed to hit more than 40 homers (31) for the same span.  It should be noted that 2010 was Howard's 5th year as a full-time player, so these are really career firsts for the big guy.  That said, he still put up very good numbers when you consider that he missed 19 games.  Just not first or second round draft pick numbers.

Until 2009, where he brought his batting average back up to .279 from a career low .251 in 2008, Howard was clearly in decline.  Sure, you can point to his 146 RBIs and 48 homerruns in 2008 and call me crazy, but his OPS in 2008 fell all the way to .881, 203 points lower than his MVP year in 2006.  Yes, he scored a lot of runs too, crossing the plate 105 times in 2008, but he also had a career low OBP of .339.  Even still, there is no doubt that if you drafted Howard high then you were pleased with his returns.

In 2010, however, Howard saw his OPS fall down to .859.  This is troubling because that was with Jayson Werth protecting him in the five hole, and now Werth is no longer a Phillie, leaving a major question mark at the five hole.  This should have an impact on his walks, which were also at a career worst 59 last season.  Whether that is a positive or a negative impact remains to be seen, as pitchers could use Werth's absence as a green light to go right at Howard and not pitch around him, which could in turn cause Howard to help generate more Green Energy as he plays human windmill.  Or it could see the exact opposite, and pitchers could say "why bother with Howard" and give him nothing to hit at all.

From where I'm sitting, Howard is a very risky play in 2011.  There are a ton of first basemen that I would select over Howard, which will be exhibited in my tiers when they are made available, which will not be until at least the start of March.