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Should You Chase Chase?
By: mbohn
The past few fantasy seasons Chase Utley has been a high first round selection. After an extremely disappointing 2010 season, does Chase still deserve to be drafted at the top of the two bagger tier? Let us take a nice long look at Utley’s career path and see how he is trending.In 2006 Chase Utley had his best offensive year. Dude hit at a .309 clip with a .906 OPS, neither of which were career highs (those came in 2007 at .332/.976 respectively). Chase launched 32 homers (one shy of his career high set in 2008) and crossed the plate an amazing 131 times. Throw in 102 RBIs and 15 stolen bases and you have one tremendous year, both in real life and fantasy land. 2007 saw him play in 28 less games, but yet he still manage 22 bombs, 103 RBIs and 104 runs. In 2008, however, Utley saw his average plummet 40 points down to .292, and his OPS fell to .915. Both of those are good numbers out of your two bagger, mind you, just declining from where he was. He did still manage 113 runs and 104 RBIs to go with his 33 bombs, not to mention his 14 stolen bases. 2009 saw the downward trend for his average (.282) and OPS (.905) continue, while his other numbers all stayed at impressive marks (31 HR, 112 R, 93 RBIs, 23 SB). Then came an injury plagued 2010 campaign which saw his AVG drop to .275 and his OPS to .832. With just 16 homers, 75 runs and 65 RBIs, it seems like the declining average and OPS finally caught up to Chase.However, if we look at his splits for 2010 we see that his best month was September, where he batted .306 with a .911 OPS. He knocked in a season best 24 RBIs and scored 21 runs, also a season high. Add in his five long balls and seven stolen bases and you have a very, very nice end to the season. Unfortunately for Utley, what most people remember is the .182 average and .561 OPS he threw up in the NLCS.The question for fantasy owners is how much stock to put in his September showing, and whether or not he will be hampered by his thumb in 2011. I think Utley is due for a good rebound year and will build upon his late season push. The issue with Utley, however, is the fact that he gets hit by pitches more than anyone else in baseball, which could lead to another hand injury. It should be noted that he hurt his thumb while sliding into second base, and judging from his seven stolen bases in September, there are no mental issues lingering that should hamper Utley going forward. So no, I would not worry about the thumb at all. I would worry that he may suffer an injury of some sort, with the HBP situation (really, dude, stop leaning over the plate already) and the fact that no one plays harder than Utley. If you can not nab Robinson Cano or Dan Uggla, however, Utley would make a better selection than any other two bagger on the market. Even with his “crappy” 2010 year, he ranked 6th in VORP for second basemen. If you, like me, expect him to rebound this season, then you have no choice but to make him a target on draft day.
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