The Fantasy Pitch

Broxton Put On The Shelf

Thu, 5 May 2011 06:37:26 GMT

All you fantasy baseball heads need to check your waiver wire. If Vicente Padilla is available, pick him up ASAP. With Jonathan Broxton being shut down with "elbow pain", Padilla is the next in line to get saves. Also, he is an SP/RP in Yahoo leagues, so he has extra value due to flexibility. While Padilla has only thrown five frames this season, he has notched a save and his ERA and WHIP are both excellent. Padilla has always had some good stuff, and being used out of the bully could make that stuff great.

Ut-Oh, Utley's Knee is a Major Issue

Wed, 2 Mar 2011 03:36:05 GMT

Back on February 3rd we wondered where we should place Chase Utley on draft boards. As always, things have changed since then, when I recommended targeting Utley as your two bagger and expected a huge year.

Now Utley is suffering from patella tendinitis in his right knee. Color me extremely worried about Utley this season, as there is no timetable for when he will see any action this Spring. He is still someone you should target, but I would rear back on expectations as he is likely to miss time this season, and could miss it several times. Proceed with caution.

Justin Morneau - Should You?

Tue, 1 Mar 2011 06:22:39 GMT

Justin Morneau must have suffered the worst concussion in the history of ever, as he still is not medically cleared to play in games. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has told the media to stop asking questions about Morneau, because he is done giving them fodder for Twitter and blogs.

I am usually a big fan of Morneau, and made the "mistake" of leaning on him as one of my one baggers last season. That really was not a mistake, as Morneau was on a tear last year as he wound up with a .345 batting average, 18 homers, 56 RBIs, 53 runs and an OPS of 1.055 through his 296 at bats. Those are monster numbers, and if he had not suffered the concussion in early July.

All that said, it is really fishy that he has yet to be medically cleared. With Gardenhire's comments, I would stay away from drafting Morneau unless you can get him late and have another one bagger already on your roster. Of course, there are still a few weeks before most drafts, so all of this could change.

Closer Watch - Toronto Blue Jays

Wed, 16 Feb 2011 07:58:13 GMT

Now that pitchers and catchers have reported, bullpen situations across the land will begin to come into focus. One such bully is the Blue Jays' pen, where there are four viable options at closer.

Octavio Dotel is the least likely to win the spot, despite having the most saves of the group at 105. The other candidates are Jon Rauch (47 career saves, 21 in 2010 with the Twins), Jason Frasor (36 career saves, 4 in 2010) and Frank Francisco (32 career saves, 2 in 2010).

According to Jays Manager John Farrell, Frank Francisco has the edge due to his ability to control left handed bats. We'll keep our eye on this as Spring progresses, as Farrell also says they will head North with a closer named, and not going by committee.

Cole Hamels - Best of the Best?

Wed, 16 Feb 2011 07:44:18 GMT

Unless you have been living in a cave, you are well aware that the Philadelphia Phillies, upon adding Cliff Lee, have formed one of, if not the best rotations of all time. I'm always hesitant to call anything the best ever, and I will stick to that rule here. The question of importance is which of their vaunted starters should you target in your fantasy league?

Remember, this comparison is for value, and with the assumption that you can only nab one of the four. Obviously, if the value is there, you are going to nab as many as you can, but for the purpose of this comparison I'm using the basis that only one will be on your roster. So who should you reach for? Lets take a look at some numbers.

In 2010 all four were in the top 25 in strikeouts: Cliff Lee 22nd (185), Roy Oswalt 17th (193), Cold Hamels 10th (211), Roy Halladay 5th (219). Now lets look at innings pitched: Hamels 28th (208.2), Oswalt 23rd (211.2), Lee 20th (212.1), Halladay 1st (250.2). Only Halladay and Hamels cracked the 200 mark in both Ks and innings pitched, with Halladay going an amazing 42 more innings than Hamels, yet only striking out eight more batters. Hamels clearly wins in the K department, with his 9.1 K/9, with Oswalt next at 8.21. Halladay sat at 7.86 with Lee close behind at 7.84. Sure, no league should have K/9 as a category, but if you are in a maximum innings pitched league then this make Hamels even more valuable.

Stats that you do count are WHIP and ERA. Hamels had the highest WHIP at 1.18, with Lee the lowest at an even 1. Not a lot of separation from 1st to 4th there, so it should not factor into your decision. ERA? This is where Halladay beats everyone, with his phenomenal 2.44. Oswalt comes next with a 2.76, followed by Hamels at 3.06 and Lee's 3.18. Halladay is obviously a beast in ERA, but would you scoff at another 3.06 from Hamels? Hardly.

Wins is the final stat that you will most likely track, a stat that is the biggest illusion in baseball, but since they are important in fantasy land we must consider them. Last season Hamels started the year as the #2 for the Phils. This year he is likely to start as the #4. So Hamels will be matched up against the likes of Bud Norris, Kevin Correia and such. Few rotations go deep like the Phillies, so you should expect that Hamels' wins will increase from his 12 in 2010. For you PECOTA fans, do not fret about the numbers that it predicts for Hamels, this is one of the cases where I think PECOTA is dead wrong.

While it is still too early to get accurate ADP numbers, I have seen some mocks with "experts" where Hamels goes as late as the 10th round. Since that is obviously late, we'll call it 8th for arguments sake. Halladay goes in the first round of every draft. Lee no later than the 2nd. Oswalt? 6th at worst. Do you really think that either Lee (whose numbers were worse than Hamels in 2010) or Halladay is worth that much more than Hamels? I do not, and I'll be happy to pass on both of the CY Young winners and take Hamels "early" in the 5th if it means I can nab a big bat early instead.

Jay Bruce - Set For Breakout Season

Thu, 10 Feb 2011 08:10:55 GMT

Jay Bruce's name first appeared in my scribes on May 21, 2008. Back then, dude was killing AAA pitching to a tune of .366 with an OPS of 1.059. Not to mention he was raking with 37 RBIs and 10 homers with eight steals. He was prospect numero uno in all of baseball, and thus dubbed "The Natural" by Reds fans everywhere. Bruce went on to be a mixed bag of treats, knocking in 21 homers in his 413 big league at-bats in the '08 season. Problem was, that magnificent average and OPS we not to be found, with him hitting .254 with an OPS of .767.

Then came the 2009 season, and his average got even worse. At .223 Bruce was a fantasy category killer, and his .773 OPS hardly made up ground. 22 homers and 58 RBIs did not exactly raise eyebrows either, at least, not in the fashion that anyone was expecting. Remember, dude was the number one prospect in all of baseball when he was called up.

2010 tells a much better story, however. Some may look at his .281 average and .846 OPS and shrug. Others will notice that his second half was tremendous, hitting for .306 with a .951 OPS. He finished the year with 25 dingers and 70 RBIs, but crossed the plate 80 times himself. Bruce hits righties and lefties about the same, and his home and away splits for average are not far off. His power all comes in Cincy, though, with 19 of his batted balls leaving the yard at home.

Needless to say, at 23 years old, Bruce is figuring it out, and this could be his "breakthrough" year. How high you should mark him on your draft board is still unclear, but Bruce is someone that should be tabbed in your notebook. Would I call him a sleeper? Depends on your league, really, but as someone who is likely to fall to round 9 at the absolute earliest if you can nab him in the mid-teens perhaps. Where I put him on my draft board will be revealed when my tiers are ready. Keep checking back, and until then, keep your eye on Bruce.

Prospect Watch - Julio Teheran

Tue, 8 Feb 2011 01:34:27 GMT

There are a lof of publications and sites that are now devoted to ranking prospects. Of course, Baseball America is the top dog in that game, but Baseball Prospectus is gaining ground, and fast. One Edge that BA has over BP is it's annual Prospect Handbook, which is something that I do not typically leave the house without. Being as I am in Germany at the moment, it is going to be hard to get my hands on that sucker in a timely fashion this season, but I will still try to bring as much about prospects to you as I can.

That said, the first Prospect Watch of 2011 is for Julio Teheran. If you do not know about Teheran yet, he is tabbed as the #2 right handed pitching prospect in all of baseball, behind only Jeremy Hellickson. Quite frankly, that could be an understatement, as Julio has been described as a taller Pedro Martinez that is a future ace.

Julio currently employs three plus pitches. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, but he can hit the upper 90s when needed. Teheran's changeup has movement and is deceptive, making that fastball even harder to peg down. Then comes his curveball, which he has no issues throwing for strikes. For a kid that just turned 20 two weeks ago, his arsenal is very impressive.

The sky is the limit for Teheran, with BP stating that he could be one of the first pitchers nabbed in future drafts. In a rotation that already has Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Mike Minor all under 26 years old, the Braves are set up nicely to take the reigns back in the NL East when the Phillies starters (all in their early to mid 30s other than Cole Hamels) decline.

How good is the Brave's farm system? BP ranks Craig Kimbrel as the 5th best player in it. Look for Teheran to possibly get called up in September, unless a rash of injuries decimate the current rotation. With Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Minor being the probable rotation on opening day, they Braves can afford to take it slow with not only Teheran, but Arodys Vizcaino (their 4th best prospect) as well.

So do not worry about Teheran on draft day, or possibly at all this season. Keep him on your radar as a possible sleeper pick in 2012, although it is possible that he will be this year's Aroldis Chapman and wind up on everyone's radar.

Adrian Gonzalez - No Brainer

Sun, 6 Feb 2011 08:22:07 GMT

Adrian Gonzalez is one of the premier one baggers in baseball. Anyone who disagrees with this has some bias against him that clearly clouds their vision. Dude just simply mashes. Sure, at age 28 he saw his homers dip to 31 in 2010 from 40 in 2009. Sure, his OPS may have dropped to .904 last season, with both his OBP and SLG taking dips. Gonzalez had a strange year that saw him collect 23 more hits (176) than he did in his monster 2009 season, yet see his OBP decrease. This was due to his decrease in walks, and the fact that the ball did not travel as far (for anyone) in 2010.

This season looks to be another monster year from Gonzalez. Not only will he be playing his home games in the hitter friendly confines of Fenway Park, but he will have a much better offense around him. Expect all of his statistics to go up in 2011, and if this were an injury report and we were making a judgement on his ability to eclipse his ridiculous 2009 season, he would get tagged as Probable.

ESPN has him tagged as the fourth best one bagger in the Majors. While I can not argue that the players above him are great (Pujols, Cabrera, Votto) and look to have tremendous years, if I had my druthers I would rather have Gonzo over any of these guys. One reason is the fact that Gonzo has played in at least 160 games each of the past four seasons, and will now have the chance to fill the DH role on games he does not take the field. Add that to the move from the worst hitters park in baseball (Petco) to one of the best (Fenway), and the change from the now pitching heavy NL to the AL and you have the makings of an incredible season.

Time To Get Cooking

Sat, 5 Feb 2011 02:57:10 GMT

As you have seen, we have begun the process of evaluating players for the 2011 season. Sure, we may have only looked at two so far, but you can bet that sweet ass of yours that things are about to heat up. Two big reasons for that.

The first reason is the fact that Baseball Prospectus will release its PECOTA cards on Monday. These will be used in conjunction with FanGraphs.com, Yahoo and some other systems to build our tiers to help you through draft day. PECOTA is a big player in the process, and until we have access to it delving too deeply is pointless speculation, rather than calculated speculation. Yeah, it is all speculation in the end...

The other big reason is that as a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, I get to participate in one of their insiders leagues. Last year I was admitted to a league a mere day before the draft, and that was a huge disadvantage. I held my own for over half the season before injuries caught up and I plummeted from 3rd to 10th place to finish the year.

The reason it was such a disadvantage to get placed in a league so late is due to the scoring system. It uses Runs, OBP, SLG, RBIs and Steals for offense. Yeah, that is right, no homers in this format, which obviously changes the way you plan for the draft. The pitching stats are your typical Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA and WHIP, so no worries there.

Do not fret, however, as I will also be in other leagues that will indeed take homers into account, so the tiers that get posted here will be reflective of that. Besides, we would not want any of my opponents using my tiers on draft day, now would we?

So look forward to updates on how I am faring in the FSWA league throughout the season. Unless, of course, we are getting our asses handed to us. Then the updates might not be too frequent...

Ryan Howard. Still Worth a High Pick?

Fri, 4 Feb 2011 12:04:39 GMT

Yesterday we took a long, hard look at Chase Utley, ultimately deciding that 2011 could be a rejuvenating year for the two bagger. We would be remiss if we did not look at his counterpart, one Ryan Howard. It is no secret that Howard is not someone of whom we put a tremendous amount of stock, so it is time to look deeper into the numbers and see what comes out.

In the 2010 season, Howard ranked 13th of all one baggers in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). Whether or not you choose to put a lot of stock into VORP probably depends on your level of sabermetric knowledge and appreciation. There is nothing wrong with looking at a player based solely on the traditional statistics, but when doing so you handcuff your ability to project how a player may perform with a different roster or ballpark. I like to use VORP to help create rankings by position, but it is not the sole statistic that I rely on. I also look at things like the Equivalent stats, which to me are a much more reliable way to judge a player than any other set of stats. Ok, let us get off of this tangent and back to Howard.

2010 was certainly a down year for Ryan, as he saw all of his stats take a dive compared to his 2009 season. For the first time in four years, Howard failed to drive in more than 130 runs (108 RBIs) and also failed to hit more than 40 homers (31) for the same span. It should be noted that 2010 was Howard's 5th year as a full-time player, so these are really career firsts for the big guy. That said, he still put up very good numbers when you consider that he missed 19 games. Just not first or second round draft pick numbers.

Until 2009, where he brought his batting average back up to .279 from a career low .251 in 2008, Howard was clearly in decline. Sure, you can point to his 146 RBIs and 48 homerruns in 2008 and call me crazy, but his OPS in 2008 fell all the way to .881, 203 points lower than his MVP year in 2006. Yes, he scored a lot of runs too, crossing the plate 105 times in 2008, but he also had a career low OBP of .339. Even still, there is no doubt that if you drafted Howard high then you were pleased with his returns.

In 2010, however, Howard saw his OPS fall down to .859. This is troubling because that was with Jayson Werth protecting him in the five hole, and now Werth is no longer a Phillie, leaving a major question mark at the five hole. This should have an impact on his walks, which were also at a career worst 59 last season. Whether that is a positive or a negative impact remains to be seen, as pitchers could use Werth's absence as a green light to go right at Howard and not pitch around him, which could in turn cause Howard to help generate more Green Energy as he plays human windmill. Or it could see the exact opposite, and pitchers could say "why bother with Howard" and give him nothing to hit at all.

From where I'm sitting, Howard is a very risky play in 2011. There are a ton of first basemen that I would select over Howard, which will be exhibited in my tiers when they are made available, which will not be until at least the start of March.

Should You Chase Chase?

Thu, 3 Feb 2011 08:27:11 GMT

The past few fantasy seasons Chase Utley has been a high first round selection. After an extremely disappointing 2010 season, does Chase still deserve to be drafted at the top of the two bagger tier? Let us take a nice long look at Utley’s career path and see how he is trending.

In 2006 Chase Utley had his best offensive year. Dude hit at a .309 clip with a .906 OPS, neither of which were career highs (those came in 2007 at .332/.976 respectively). Chase launched 32 homers (one shy of his career high set in 2008) and crossed the plate an amazing 131 times. Throw in 102 RBIs and 15 stolen bases and you have one tremendous year, both in real life and fantasy land. 2007 saw him play in 28 less games, but yet he still manage 22 bombs, 103 RBIs and 104 runs.

In 2008, however, Utley saw his average plummet 40 points down to .292, and his OPS fell to .915. Both of those are good numbers out of your two bagger, mind you, just declining from where he was. He did still manage 113 runs and 104 RBIs to go with his 33 bombs, not to mention his 14 stolen bases.

2009 saw the downward trend for his average (.282) and OPS (.905) continue, while his other numbers all stayed at impressive marks (31 HR, 112 R, 93 RBIs, 23 SB). Then came an injury plagued 2010 campaign which saw his AVG drop to .275 and his OPS to .832. With just 16 homers, 75 runs and 65 RBIs, it seems like the declining average and OPS finally caught up to Chase.

However, if we look at his splits for 2010 we see that his best month was September, where he batted .306 with a .911 OPS. He knocked in a season best 24 RBIs and scored 21 runs, also a season high. Add in his five long balls and seven stolen bases and you have a very, very nice end to the season. Unfortunately for Utley, what most people remember is the .182 average and .561 OPS he threw up in the NLCS.

The question for fantasy owners is how much stock to put in his September showing, and whether or not he will be hampered by his thumb in 2011. I think Utley is due for a good rebound year and will build upon his late season push. The issue with Utley, however, is the fact that he gets hit by pitches more than anyone else in baseball, which could lead to another hand injury. It should be noted that he hurt his thumb while sliding into second base, and judging from his seven stolen bases in September, there are no mental issues lingering that should hamper Utley going forward. So no, I would not worry about the thumb at all.

I would worry that he may suffer an injury of some sort, with the HBP situation (really, dude, stop leaning over the plate already) and the fact that no one plays harder than Utley. If you can not nab Robinson Cano or Dan Uggla, however, Utley would make a better selection than any other two bagger on the market. Even with his “crappy” 2010 year, he ranked 6th in VORP for second basemen. If you, like me, expect him to rebound this season, then you have no choice but to make him a target on draft day.

Closer Watch - Atlanta Braves

Wed, 2 Feb 2011 12:39:08 GMT

Last season the Braves relied on one of baseball's all-time best closers, Billy Wagner, to finish things up in the 9th. Wagner responded by posting 37 saves and seven wins against only two losses. He struck out 104 batters during his 69.1 innings of work, and only allowed 11 earned runs while posting an ERA of 1.43.

That type of production is hard to replace, and it looks like the Braves will rely on two 2nd year arms to attempt the task, Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel.

Lets start with Venters, who exploded onto the scene in Atlanta in 2010. Venters had a tremendous 1.95 ERA in his 83 innings on the mound, giving up only one homer and allowing 18 earned runs. His 1.204 WHIP reflected his lone weak spot, the 39 free passes he handed out. Still, the 100 runners he allowed on base we basically cancelled out by the 93 that he struck out. At 6'3", 195lbs Venters is a good sized lefty that will be an asset whether he is the closer or not in Atlanta.

If Venters exploded onto the scene, then Kimbrel was like simply nuclear. While only getting 20.2 innings worth of time on the hill, Kimbrel made the most of them. Dude struck out 40 batters, and only allowed a single earned run. He was also plagued a bit by walks, issuing 16 of them to go with the nine hits he allowed. With an ERA of 0.44 and a WHIP of 1.209, Kimbrel's Spring will have a lot to say about whether or not he starts the year as the go to man in the 9th for Freddie Gonzalez.

From where things look right now, Venters will probably be the main guy early, but working as a tandem with Kimbrel based on match-ups. If Kimbrel continues to throw at a 17.42 K/9 though, it will hard to imagine him not taking over the spot at some point. My advice would be to target both of these guys in your draft, as both will have tremendous value whether coming out for the 8th or the 9th.

Groundhog Day = Time To Get Focused

Wed, 2 Feb 2011 09:36:03 GMT

It is February 2nd, which means that pitchers and catchers will be reporting in under two weeks. It also means that it is time to get focused on the upcoming season. It has been a very busy offseason, and it looks to remain that way until Spring Training ends. In the coming weeks we plan on rolling out our draft tiers, rankings and strategies to help get you on the way to dominating your fantasy league.

Last season's blogging was cut extremely short, and was no where near the level that it needs to be in order to provide you with the analysis and advice that will help you finish in first. This was a result of "the real world" taking many turns which ended with me living in Munich, Germany for a brief period. So apologies to those who were let down last season, the path to redemption starts here and now.

The Chicken Runs At Midnight

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 12:34:11 GMT

Off The Record is a sports blog run by two of my good buddies. No really, I know these dudes on a personal level, unlike 99.9% of the people I deal with online. Micah Warren posted a story that pulled at my strings, so I thought I would share it. Micah does a great job of telling the story of Rich Donnelly and his daughter Amy. For those who do not know who Rich Donnelly is, he was the third base coach for the Pirates in 1992 when the Braves beat them in the NLCS due to Barry Bonds' inability to throw out Sid Bream from deep short. Anyway, do yourself a favor and take a few minutes to read this wonderful story.

Another Reason to Admire Roy Halladay

Wed, 25 Aug 2010 03:13:32 GMT

We all know who Roy Halladay is. In case you have been living in a cave the past few years, Roy is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. While he may not win the NL Cy Young Award this year (there is some stiff competition), he has shown that he is a class act and truly appreciates everyone around him.

Back on May 29th Roy pitched a perfect game in Florida against the Marlins. He decided to thank his teammates with an engraved watch. He did not stop with his teammates, however, and also gave them out to all of the traveling attendants who help make road trips easier on the team. But wait, there is more. Roy did not stop with the traveling attendants, but also gave them to all clubhouse personnel back home in Philly as well.

The watches are enclosed in a wooden box that has a glass top on it. Each box has not only a thank you from Roy ("We did it together. Thanks, Roy Halladay.") etched into it, but he also had each recipient's name engraved as well. So even the dude who tosses Roy a towel as he leaves the shower got his own watch, with his own name on it to prove it was a personal gift from Roy Halladay. In a day and age where athletes are known more and more for their lavish lifestyles and selfish attitudes, it is extremely refreshing to see that one of baseball's very best players is also one of its classiest.

So thank you to Roy Halladay. Not only for the awesomeness he displays each time he takes the hill, but for doing what he can to restore our faith in professional athlete's character.

Soriano Throws a Perfecto

Tue, 24 Aug 2010 12:44:01 GMT

Ok, so it might not have been a perfect game, but Rafael Soriano was about as perfect as possible last night against the Los Angeles Angels. Dude came in to try and close the door in the ninth inning and struck out the side. Sure, that happens quite a bit, but not in the fashion that Soriano accomplished the feat. The leader in all of MLB for saves this season with 38, Soriano needed just nine pitches to record his three strikeouts. This is just the 44th time anyone has struck out the side on a mere nine pitches in baseball history. Of course, the most surprising thing about this is the fact that Soriano is still pitching this late in the season.

(Yes, I know the picture is of Soriano in a Braves uni, but you try finding a picture measuring 500 in width...)

Cards Deal Carpenter to Houston for Feliz!!

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 07:42:17 GMT

The Saint Louis Cardinals needed a three bagger, and today they filled that hole by acquiring Pedro Feliz from the Houston Astros. In order to nab Feliz, the Cards sent Carpenter to the Astros. No, not Chris Carpenter, that would be lunacy in its finest form. This Carpenter is David, a minor league pitcher.

Word out of Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Diego and Philadelphia was hard to obtain, because every front office suit we talked to merely yawned at the news. Feliz is a terrific defender, but he hits the ball about as well as most teams starting pitchers do. Check that, some teams have starting pitchers who hit better than Feliz. This move should have zero impact on your fantasy team as you make the stretch run for last place in your league.

Super Two's Day

Tue, 8 Jun 2010 12:20:42 GMT

Welcome to Super Two's Day, where your favorite prospect gets the nod because the calendar has finally flipped enough times. Not only do we get to see Stephen Strasburg, er, Jesus make his MLB debut today, but we also get to see Mike Stanton get the call for the Marlins. Huge day in the NL East, to be certain, but an even bigger day in your fantasy league. Those of you who took my advice and added Stanton last week will be reaping the benefits soon. I was lucky enough to nab him in two of my three leagues, but not in my FSWA Insiders League, damn it.

One blog I like to read as much as possible is Closing Time on Yahoo Sports. Matt Romig wrote up a great piece on Stanton that deserves pushing. As Romig tells you, Stanton probably is not still available in your league. Again, good thing you listened to me last week...

In a very ironic twist, we saw a former top prospect get sent back down to the Minors when Matt LaPorta was demoted to AAA. This stings, as LaPorta was one of our prospects to watch last season. This should serve as a reminder that no matter how good a player is in the Minors, when they step onto the field wearing an MLB uniform it does not always translate into instant success. So let us all keep our fingers crossed for Stanton, if not for him but for The Fantasy Pitch's reputation.

Stanton Watch - May 28th - Timeline Update

Fri, 28 May 2010 05:28:24 GMT

Wow, it has already been 24 days since our last update on Mike Stanton. Since then, Stanton his a small slump, but busted out in a big way. His current numbers are a massive 17 homers, 1.146 OPS, .306 AVG, 44 RBIs and 33 Runs. Sure, he has also sports a 37:45 BB:K ratio, but with on OBP of .440 it obviously has not been an issue in AA. The reason for today's update is that we think we may know when he is getting the call.

According to Joe Frisaro of The Fish Pond, he could make his debut on June 5th. He would start out batting in the seven hole, but if his power translates to the Bigs that will not last long. Keep your eye on Stanton and nab him as soon as he is available in your league. If that is now, then nab him. Dude could be the next Ryan Braun, or Evan Longoria. Of course, he could also be the next Mat Gamel or Matt LaPorta. With prospects you never know for sure until they get some time in the Bigs, but I would rather waste a bench spot for a few weeks than pass up on a player with Stanton's upside.

Closing Time - Will Ohman

Fri, 28 May 2010 04:58:08 GMT

Will Ohman is now officially the Baltimore Orioles closer, according to Tristan Cockcroft. How long he will last will be determined by the health of Mike Gonzalez and Alfredo Simon. Ohman is off to a great season, with 17 strikeouts to go with his 0.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 15.2 innings of work. Sure, he may not get a lot of save opportunities playing for Baltimore, but as any savvy fantasy baseball player knows even the closers on the worst teams can have tremendous value over the life of a season.

So pick up Ohman if he is available, whether you need saves or not. Ohman is a contributor across the board, with wins being the lone exception. Do not be scared away by the fact that he entered the year in AAA at 32 years of age, or the fact that he has an 11 - 9 career record. Over his career he has a 243:122 K:BB ratio, which might not be stellar but when you consider that he only has 246.2 innings of work it looks much better. Lets hope dude remains lights out for the rest of the season, and that you are quick enough to nab him.

Oh, and as the picture shows, Ohman does not play around, so he should have a great mentality for the closer role. That is, if this is really Will Ohman in the picture (kinda hard to be 100% on that). It also looks like me may keep an attack spider in his pocket (look under his elbow on Wilson's pants, sure looks like a spider to me...)....

Stephen "Jesus" Strasburg's Timeline?

Thu, 27 May 2010 03:12:36 GMT

According to Bill Ladson, who covers the Nationals for MLB.com, Stephen Strasburg could make his debut in the Bigs when the Pirates come to National Park June 8th through the 10th. Ladson says that a "team source" supplied the information, but it does not seem to be confidential to the team. Just take Nyjer Morgan's take on dude possibly making his first start against Morgan's former team:

"This kid is a monster. He is a special breed," Morgan said. "I'm fired up that he will face my former team. I just want to see him pitch really good against them. He is going to bring an energy that we haven't had before here. It's something I'm looking forward to."

The other thing we just learned is that Strasburg officially has a nickname from Morgan. Apparently Nyjer calls him Jesus. Nice.

The other big news surrounding the Nationals is their pursuit of Roy Oswalt. Rumor has it they are trying to trade for Oswalt, which could give them a dominant one-two punch if Strasburg pitches the way he is expected to.

The obvious fantasy impact would be Strasburg arriving early enough to get about 20 starts, which should get him at least 120 Ks and 10 wins. I think Oswalt would actually see his value increase in the NL East, mainly because other than Citizen's Bank Park the stadiums are not hitter friendly, and even the Bank is not as hitter friendly as advertised.

Bad Omen for the Rays?

Wed, 26 May 2010 05:01:05 GMT

Sean Rodriguez, a 25 year old two bagger for the Rays, was playing at the beach with his daughter and Ray's shorty Jason Bartlett when he had an extremely ironic thing happen. Dude was nabbed by a sting ray. Luckily for Rodriguez, it was only a minor sting on his foot and he will not need any time off.

Some time off might do dude good though, as he is batting .211 with 30 strikeouts in only 71 at-bats. It is a shame that he will only be known as the Ray that got stung, but had he not been stung he might have been remembered as, well, never mind. No one knows who this guy is so no one would have remembered him anyway.

Prospect Watch - Jeremy Hellickson

Tue, 25 May 2010 05:48:01 GMT

If you have not yet heard the name Jeremy Hellickson, it is probably because people like myself tend to talk way too much about Aroldis Chapman and Stephen Strasburg. Meanwhile, Hellickson may be the first to arrive in the bigs, and he may have the most value this season. Why don't we take a look at what Hellickson is doing and learn a little more about who this cat is.

Hellickson entered the year as the second ranked prospect in the best farm system in the Majors (Tampa Bay Rays), according to my buddies at Baseball America (no, they aren't really my buddies but who knows, maybe I'll writing for them one day, I sure do pimp them enough...), and he currently sits at number 20 on the MLB.com list. Hellickson has been lights out this season. As crazy as it may sound, his best performance may not have even been his last, in which he went eight innings while holding the Pawtucket Red Sox to two baserunners (one hit, one walk). Ok, it is crazy to say that was not his best start this year. He did sit down the first 18 batters he faced, after all!

Through 10 games and 58 innings of work, Jeremy has a 2.79 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He has a 60:12 K:BB ratio, and his K/9 is sitting at 9.3. At 6'1", 185# Hellickson is a good sized right hander who is known as "Hellboy" around the clubhouse. He employs a deceptive delivery that has all of his pitches leaving the bump at the same angle. A mid-90's fastball with some downward action is his best pitch, with a change-up and curveball also being thrown for strikes. All three are considered "plus" pitches, and the only knock on Hellickson is that his fastball can lose its movement sometimes, which makes him hittable.

The only thing holding Hellickson in AAA is the fact that the Rays are simply awesome. With Wade Davis being their number five starter, and him still owning a 4.01 ERA on the year (even if his WHIP is a tad bit elevated at 1.48) I see it hard to predict when the young stud will get the call. He is on the 40-Man roster, so there are no hurdles other than people being healthy and performing well at the Major League level. My gut tells me that unless someone gets hurt, which there is always a good possibility of, we will not see Hellickson until August.

Homer Bailey Hits the Prior List. Chapman Time?

Tue, 25 May 2010 02:48:59 GMT

When I first saw the phrase "Bailey placed on DL" my initial thought was "oh crap!" Then I saw it was not Andrew Bailey, who currently sits at eight saves on the year in 10 opportunities. Then I clicked the link and discovered it was not Andrew, but rather Homer Bailey. Factor in that Johnny Cueto may miss his next start with a blister and it almost immediately made me wonder if that meant it could be Chapman time.

Aroldis Chapman has not been lighting it up as of late in AAA, however. In his last start, in which he left early due to, you guessed it, a blister, he was cruising along with seven strikeouts in 5.2 innings of work while allowing only three hits and zero runs. Dude has had a tough stretch when you look at his last five starts, giving up 17 earned runs (with the big doughnut from his blister game included!) over 20.2 innings of work. Chapman looks like his timetable for getting the call is being extended, and I do not expect to see him until late July or early August at this point. If the Reds keep winning, and he keeps stinking it up, it could be a September call-up if even that. Chapman owners who are locking up a roster spot in anticipation of him may want to consider cutting their losses.

Prospect Watch - Buster Posey

Tue, 11 May 2010 10:02:34 GMT

Buster Posey is the backstop of the future in San Francisco. Posey is currently treating AAA pitching like it is something out of RBI Baseball. Through 30 games Posey has hit at a .345 clip, with a .436 OBP and a .558 SLG. Throw in the 22 times he has crossed the plate, 21 RBIs and five homers and you have a very nice season in the works for Posey. How long can the Giants leave Posey, their number one prospect and the eighth ranked prospect in all of baseball (Baseball America), in AAA remains a mystery. There was talk of him making the club this season, but with Bengie Molina currently batting .333 with a .402 OBP and a .457 SLG, it is hard to see Posey up in the near future.

However, if there is an injury to Molina, look for Posey to get the call. While the Giants would like to get the 23 year old more seasoning at AAA (remember, he is a catcher so his offense is not the most important part of his game), it will be hard to keep a player of Posey's overall talent level down. Posey is an extremely patient hitter, striking out only 19 times so far in 113 ABs, and he has plus speed for a catcher. To merely label Posey a catcher could be misleading, as dude played all nine positions in a single game once while at Florida State. Yes, he did take the hill, and he hit 94 mph with his heater as a reliever for the Seminoles in several appearances.

Posey is the future in San Francisco. When teamed up with Pablo Sandoval, the Giants will have a great middle of the lineup tandem. Unfortunately, unless Molina gets injured or starts tanking, we may not see Posey until late August of September. Hopefully he will not be too late to be a factor in your fantasy league.

Stanton Watch - May 4th, 2010

Tue, 4 May 2010 08:59:42 GMT

Remember last week when I told you about Mike Stanton? In an effort to bring you top of the line content, here is the follow up that was promised.

Stanton is the top prospect in the Marlins system. There are a lot of reasons why, his power numbers the most obvious. Stanton is a big boy at 6'5", 230lbs. He is also fast as all get out. There is a reason that Pete Carroll told him that he could walk on to USC's football team as either a wideout or a defensive back if he accepted a baseball scholly there. So not only is dude big and young, but also athletic and fast. His battery of skills are compared to those of a Jayson Werth type player, although Stanton seems like he may also hit for average. Five tool player, anyone?

So what has Stanton done since we last wrote about him? How about four more dingers to bring his total to 13 on the season. That is four more in six games, bringing his total for the last ten games to nine. He has also added eight more RBI's over those six games, as well as six runs, six bases on balls and one bag nabbed. So far on the year, he has a .360 AVG, .504 OBP, .884 SLG (1.388 OPS), 13 HR, 26 Runs, 29 RBIs and that one stolen base. The only troubling thing is that he has 25 strikeouts to go with his 25 walks. For a guy who is not getting a lot of pitches to swing at, he should be walking more than he is. It is really hard to argue with a .504 OBP, however, but the level of competition also has to be considered.

How much longer the Fish can leave dude in AA is unclear, but a promotion to AAA in the next few weeks is likely. We will continue to follow Stanton's progress, and at this point expect him to get called up to the Bigs by the end of July.

Baseball America's Prospect Handbook was used extensively in this entry. If you are in a keeper league, or are just a baseball nut like me, this book is a must have as it is the top resource on the market for prospects.

Prospect Watch - Kyle Drabek

Tue, 4 May 2010 01:27:25 GMT

A little over a year ago we first brought Kyle Drabek to our readers' attention. Dude was on fire last season, and saw his stock rise to the point that the he was marked as untouchable when the Phillies were trying to trade for Roy Halladay before the 2009 season's trade deadline. Of course, the Phillies wound up trading their other best pitching prospect, Carlos Carrasco, in order to bring in Cliff Lee. The mind boggling thing about this, is that the Phillies wound up trading Drabek for Halladay in the offseason. Why is that mind boggling? Simple. The Phillies had a chance to get both Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay for the 2009 playoff run, but because Drabek was "untouchable" they did not. Then he was not untouchable after the season ended. Follow me? Why Phillies fans are not upset about this is beyond our comprehension skills, as they could have had two of the best starters in the game. They went on to prove us wrong by winning the 2009 World Series.

So this brings us to the 2010 version of Drabek. Kyle is pitching for Toronto's AAA affiliate, the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. Dude has taken the ball five times, and is sporting a 4 - 1 meaningless win/loss record. His ERA is sitting at 3.49, and his WHIP is about 1.34. Not too shabby, but not the lights out numbers expected from Drabek. He has worked his way to a 27:16 K:BB Ratio, which is troubling because last season he posted a 150:50 K:BB for the entire season. A little math tells us that instead of the 3:1 rate he was striking out batters last year, this season he is just under 2:1.

Fact of the matter is it is still too early to make any judgments on a guy like Drabek. We still think he is an elite level prospect, and will be a future top of the rotation guy. He will make his debut this season, not until after June 1st of course, and could be a help to your fantasy squad. If he continues to have control issues, he could arrive to late to make a huge difference for you, though. We will do our best to keep you posted on Drabek's progress and timetable.

Prospect Watch - Michael Stanton

Tue, 4 May 2010 02:29:00 GMT

Those of you who kept tabs on my old site, TheSportsIdiot.com, know that I love to talk about prospects. Nothing gets my juices flowing better than a guy who can mash like hell against competition beneath his ability level. Well, almost nothing. One thing I try to do is keep you informed about guys who are phenoms and guys who could impact the current fantasy baseball season. That brings me to Michael Stanton.

Stanton, whose full name is Giancarlo Cruz-Michael Stanton according to his MiLB.com page, is simply mashing for AA Jacksonville in the Florida Marlins farm system. He plays right field, which is currently occupied by Cody Ross for the Marlins. So far this season, dude has racked up nine homers already to go with his 21 RBIs and 20 Runs. His OBP is sitting at .500 and his SLG is .806. That math thing tells me his OPS is 1.306.

The deceiving thing about all of this is that five, yes, five of his homers came in two, yes, two days. Obviously five of his runs came then too, as well as 11 RBIs. On Sunday Stanton drove two balls over the outfield walls, and then he followed it up with three round trippers on Monday. The good news is that dude also leads the minors in walks as well as long balls. This is significant because last year Stanton was promoted to AA Jacksonville and it resulted in a spike in strikeouts as he simply was not patient at the plate. This season, he has 20 walks already, although he does have 18 windmills to go with them. If Stanton can continue to work on his plate discipline while honing that power stroke, he could become a late season call-up candidate.

Personally, I do not see him making the jump to the Bigs this season. He is only 19 years old (11/08/1989 DOB, allegedly since his name is funky?) and there is no way the Fish want to start his service time clock this season if they can help it. If they continue to see Ross struggle (and his backup is Brett Carroll right now, so nothing blocking Stanton there) they might not have a choice but to bring the kid up. His AAA competition 33 year old Jason Lane, who is not setting the world on fire. Bryan Petersen is the only guy in the OF in AAA that is hitting, and he is not the same caliber prospect as Stanton. Unfortunately, I do not have my trusty Baseball America Prospect Handbook to provide better information on Stanton, so look for a follow up in the coming days.

Heyward Says Hello to Philadelphia

Wed, 21 Apr 2010 03:47:19 GMT

Yesterday marked the start of the first series of the 2010 MLB Season between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies. Taking the hill for the Phillies was Kyle Kendrick. Yes, the same Kyle Kendrick who owns a career 4.90 ERA through his 308.2 innings of work. Sure he is young, at 25 years of age, but there is no reason to think the sinkerballer will ever be much more than he currently is, a spot starter who is better than a AAA pitcher but not really MLB material. So naturally, as I told my wife he would last night, Kendrick tossed eight shutout innings last night, inducing 16 ground outs while only allowing four hits and walking two.

Kendrick was brilliant. Really, I mean that. It is unfortunate for him that Ryan Madson was not. After Kendrick sliced up the Braves' lineup like a knife cuts through hot butter (yeah, I did that on purpose), Madson started the inning with Martin Prado, who he managed to get out. Then he walked Chipper Jones, got Brian McCann out, and then faced Troy Glaus.

Glaus was brought to Atlanta to provide some power from the one bagger slot. So far he has not provided anything. No pop. No average. Shady defense. Last night he gave the Braves a return on their investment, when he drove a ball over the outfield wall to pull the Braves within one in the bottom of the ninth. The next batter was Jason Heyward, and well, he went all Jason Heyward on a Ryan Madson changeup and crushed it into the bleachers. Tie ball game.

Enter Billy Wagner. Yes, that same Billy Wagner who used to close for these same Phillies. Wagner pitched a great top of the 10th, striking out Ryan Howard and getting Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez out as well.

Enter Jose Contreras for the Phillies. Yes, that same Jose Contreras who defected from Cuba all those years ago. the first batter he faced was Nate McLouth, and McLouth would be the only batter he faced as the disappointing center fielder laced a ball over the right field fence to end the game.

What a great game, with a fantastic finish. Through 13 games the Braves and Phillies are both sitting at 8 - 5, although the Braves have faced the Giants, Rockies and Padres versus the Phillies having two sets against the Nationals, and one with the Marlins and Astros. Game two tonight will feature Roy Halladay for the Phillies against Tim Hudson for the Bravos. If game one was any indication, this will be a fantastic year for the Phillies/Braves series. Is it 7:05 yet?

Ike Davis Mania Sweeps NY - Updated

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 01:15:53 GMT

Ike Davis was called up by the New York Mets on Monday. Davis, a one bagger, is the fourth rated prospect in the Mets' system. Mets Fan has been comparing Davis to Jason Heyward. Not so much. Time to settle it down a little bit.

Davis is a tall kid at 6'5", and he weights in around 214 pounds. Ike played his college ball at Arizona State, where he was also a pitcher and an outfielder. He also played on the USA World Cup team where he hit at a .333 clip as the USA took home the title. He followed that up with a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League, and played well in Spring Training. So far this year for AAA Buffalo, he has two homers in 33 at-bats to go with his .364 AVG and 1.136 OPS.

So the question is what should you do with Davis in relation to your fantasy baseball league. With the first base position being pretty stacked with talent, you are hopefully not grasping to fill your 1B or UTL spots. I recommend taking a bit of a wait and see with Davis, letting someone else scoop him up if they choose to. Fact of the matter is ~~Mike Jacobs~~ (Jacobs was designated for assignment, and will not be back) and Daniel Murphy ~~are both~~ is over him on the depth chart when healthy. Unless dude continues to hit like he did last night, in his first game in the Bigs (and on national television to boot), where he went 2/4 with two singles and an RBI. He batted sixth, with Rod Barajas behind him and Jeff Francoeur in front.

Odds are that Davis will be sent back down when ~~Jacobs and/or~~ Daniels is ready to go. The Mets, despite being one of the top teams in payroll every year, do not want to keep Davis' clock running if they can help it. So unless Davis simply starts pounding the ball, I expect him to be short lived in his current stint with the big boys. If, however, he does hit for average and is not a defensive liability (Baseball America says he plays great D) he could see his time extended, but I think the Mets will want to keep him playing every day if possible. Thus, we wait and see.

UPDATE
Alright, sometimes I make mistakes. Thanks to Double G for pointing out that Jacobs was designated for assignment and will not be back. This means Davis' shot at staying in the Bigs is a better one than I previously intimated. Actually, now that I think more about it, I expect him to stay around. It does not make me want to scoop him off the waiver wire though. Not yet at least. He could be a nice addition if his power comes in, but playing at Citi Field will dampen some of that (as seen last night when he thought he jacked one but all it turned out to be was a long out).

So despite my inaccurate info in regards to Jacobs, my advice is still the same. Wait and see.